Democrats win the Senate race in Kansas — Adam Hamilton priced at 44.0% on Kalshi, up 5.0 points, on $3.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, on the same Oct. 29, 11:40 UTC crawl, lists the Hamilton contract among its political moves, in a political/election category distinct…
Adam Hamilton’s Kalshi contract for the Kansas Senate race was priced at 44.0%, up 5.0 percentage points, with $3.2M traded, in the supplied Oct. 29, 2026 market snapshot. The figures describe a change in market pricing—not a confirmed Democratic election victory.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board included the Hamilton contract among political and election markets in the Oct. 29, 11:40 UTC crawl. The supplied page separately timestamps its venue-price readings at 29 Oct 2026, 11:38 UTC.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point changes over 24 hours, rather than their relative percentage gains or losses. Hamilton’s 5.0-point rise therefore represents an upward shift in traders’ implied probability, not a 5.0% relative increase.
The board draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and updates every 15 minutes, according to PredictionBubbles. Its stated coverage spans 2,018 markets lasting longer than 14 days, with the main table displaying the top 150 of 496 markets that moved at least one probability point.
What the snapshot does not establish
The supplied material identifies no poll, announcement or other specific catalyst for Hamilton’s repricing. It also does not provide the contract’s settlement rules or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about the move beyond its direction and size.
PredictionBubbles treats trading volume as context, not as an input to its movement ranking. The reported $3.2M traded is therefore a separate measure from the 5.0-point gain; neither establishes an election result.
What it means for prediction markets
- Pricing improved but remained below 50%: Hamilton’s contract stood at 44.0% after the reported rise.
- The comparison is over 24 hours: The 5.0-point move is an absolute probability change, not a relative percentage return.
- Volume does not explain the catalyst: The $3.2M figure adds trading context, but the supplied reporting does not establish why prices changed.
- Treat this as a timestamped observation: The board refreshes every 15 minutes, so the figures describe the supplied snapshot rather than a fixed forecast.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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