Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 priced at 6.0% on Polymarket, down 5.9 points, on $641K traded

Polymarket’s market on whether Iran will withdraw from the NPT before 2027 was priced at 6.0%, down 5.9 percentage points, with $641K traded, in the supplied Oct 29, 2026 update published at 7:54 AM ET.

The figures indicate a lower market-implied probability of withdrawal before the deadline. The supplied material, however, identifies no fresh Iran-related development explaining the decline.

The data behind the move

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market-movers board measures changes over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot taken on 29 Oct 2026, 11:38 UTC.

The board ranks markets by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. It includes open markets with a valid day-earlier comparison and excludes those that have resolved or lack that baseline.

What remains unclear

The supplied page explains the tracker’s methodology but does not display the Iran contract’s individual entry. The 6.0% price, 5.9-point decline and $641K trading figure therefore come from the supplied headline, rather than an independently visible contract record in the excerpt.

That distinction limits what can be concluded about the trading. The material does not specify the period covered by the $641K figure or provide contract-level liquidity information, so it cannot establish how much trading accompanied the decline.

What it means for prediction markets

• The direction is clear: the reported price assigns a lower probability to Iran withdrawing from the NPT before 2027.
• The catalyst is not: the supplied reporting does not connect the repricing to a new policy announcement or other Iran-related event.
• Volume needs context: $641K traded does not, without a stated measurement period or liquidity data, show how substantial the trading behind the move was.