Answers Due on Election Day: Two Senators Put the Exchanges on Record
On October 28, Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and John Curtis of Utah wrote to Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour and Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan demanding answers by November 3, Election Day, on how each exchange stops insider trading and manipulation in its midterm contracts.
The letter, published October 29, asks four things: what safeguards are in place now, what each exchange does beyond screening Federal Election Commission filings to stop campaigns and others with material nonpublic information from trading, which cases it has referred to the CFTC, and how it detects manipulation.
It leans on three episodes: candidates who traded contracts on their own races in 2025 and April 2026, alleged manipulation on Polymarket's 2024 presidential market put at roughly one third of that market's volume, and an NPR investigation into campaign insiders who traded ahead of internal polling, with at least one trade verified against market records.
The timing is the scale. More than $1.4 billion has traded on the 2026 midterms, nearly $1.1 billion of it on Kalshi and more than $340 million on Polymarket, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidates for betting on their own races. Kalshi says it prohibits insider trading, blocks candidates and campaign staff using FEC payroll data, and has set up an independent market integrity committee.
The letter has no legal force and suspends no market. What it does is put both exchanges on record, in writing, on the day voters decide the Senate and House races their contracts price. Whether either reply is published, and whether the CFTC acts, is now the story after the polls close.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source 1
- Senate Banking Committee
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
- Source 2
- The Hill
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
- Source 3
- CNNcnn.com
- Publisher
- https://www.cnn.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
- Source 4
- The Daily Upside
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Senate Banking Committee”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Winthrop priced at 60 percent on Polymarket against Queens at 59 percent in a college basketball toss-up on November 2, Action Network reports
- Ohio Senate market volume on Kalshi jumps to 9.9 million dollars from 2.6 million dollars as Polymarket prices Sherrod Brown at 73.5 percent, Cointelegraph reports
- Polymarket market on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 leads tracked volume at 76.2 million dollars priced at 17 cents, PicksByOdds reports
- Kalshi valued at 22 billion dollars and Polymarket at 15 billion dollars as both retreat from China, India, Brazil and Nigeria, SCCG reports
- Stripe IPO before 2027 priced at 5.3% on Polymarket, up 0.8 points, on $271K traded
- Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026 priced at 11.6% on Polymarket, up 1.0 points, on $246K traded