Peltola commands high market prices with Alaska Senate count unfinished
Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 637 votes in Alaska's uncalled Senate race, priced at 98 cents on Polymarket and 96.9 cents on Kalshi. About 60,000 mostly mail ballots remain outstanding, no new count is required before November 10, and ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18.
Mary Peltola holds a 637-vote lead over Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s uncalled Senate race, according to Action Network. Prediction-market prices strongly favor Peltola, even as outstanding ballots leave the result unresolved.
Trading volume in Kalshi’s Alaska Senate market has reached $28.4 million, nearly twice Wednesday’s total. The figures were reported in an update published Nov 6, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET.
Prices lean toward Peltola ahead of counting milestones
Peltola is priced at 98 cents on Polymarket and 96.9 cents on Kalshi. Both prices indicate a strong market expectation that she will win, rather than confirmation of an election outcome.
About 60,000 ballots remain outstanding, most of them mail ballots. No new count is required before November 10, and ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18, according to Action Network. Those dates frame the next counting milestones while Peltola’s current advantage remains narrow.
What it means for prediction markets
- Confidence is not a called result: Peltola’s 98-cent Polymarket price and 96.9-cent Kalshi price sit alongside an unresolved race and a 637-vote lead.
- Outstanding ballots remain central: About 60,000 ballots have yet to be counted; the supplied reporting does not establish how they will divide between the candidates.
- Timing matters: November 10 is the earliest deadline identified for a required new count, while November 18 is the scheduled ranked-choice tabulation date.
- Activity has increased: Kalshi volume of $28.4 million is nearly double Wednesday’s total, but trading volume alone does not establish the eventual winner.
Sources & attribution
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- Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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