Sikt puts Democratic control odds below markets, with Ohio furthest apart
Sikt Intelligence prices Democratic House control at 91 percent and Senate control at 75 percent, below Kalshi and Polymarket at 94 percent and 76 to 78 percent. Its largest disagreement with the markets is Ohio, where it gives Sherrod Brown 60 percent against a market average near 72 percent, and every forecast will be graded against the results.
Sikt Intelligence assigns Democrats a 91 percent probability of controlling the House and a 75 percent probability of controlling the Senate, according to Sikt Intelligence. Both forecasts sit below the corresponding prices on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The figures, published Nov 3, 2026 · 6:15 PM ET, show a relatively narrow disagreement over congressional control but a larger divergence in Ohio.
Chamber forecasts remain close
Kalshi and Polymarket put Democratic House control at 94 percent, compared with Sikt’s 91 percent. That leaves the AI forecaster 3 percentage points below the markets.
For Senate control, the market probabilities range from 76 to 78 percent. Sikt’s 75 percent estimate is between 1 and 3 percentage points lower. Despite those differences, both the forecaster and the markets place Democratic control above even odds in each chamber.
Ohio accounts for the largest disagreement
Sikt’s biggest departure from market pricing concerns Sherrod Brown in Ohio. It gives Brown a 60 percent probability, while the market average is near 72 percent—a gap of roughly 12 percentage points, according to Sikt Intelligence.
Every forecast will be graded against the results. That will put both the closely aligned chamber estimates and the wider Ohio disagreement to the test.
What it means for prediction markets
- The chamber-level disagreement is limited: Sikt is lower than the markets on both House and Senate control, but the gaps are only 1 to 3 percentage points.
- Ohio is the clearest point of divergence: Brown’s 60 percent forecast is substantially below the market average near 72 percent, although both favor his chances.
- Results will provide an accountability check: The commitment to grade every forecast makes the eventual assessment broader than the most conspicuous disagreement alone.
Sources & attribution
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