Election wagers reveal a size divide in party preferences

The largest election wagers leaned heavily toward Democrats, while smaller bets showed a more balanced partisan split, according to The Wall Street Journal. About 90 percent of bets above 10,000 dollars went to Democrats.

The Journal’s report, published Nov 4, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET, cited research by Kelly Ye of Talos covering data through November 2. The analysis found that large trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket mostly favored Democrats.

Trade size changes the picture

Wagers under 100 dollars were split mostly evenly, according to the Journal. Most Kalshi trades were under 10 dollars, highlighting the distinction between the platform’s many small transactions and the preferences reflected in larger wagers.

Ye attributed the divide to different approaches to betting: larger traders tend to favor the outcome they consider more likely in pursuit of a steadier return, while smaller traders are more inclined to take long shots.

What it means for prediction markets

• Trade counts and large-bet preferences tell different stories. Most Kalshi trades were under 10 dollars, but about 90 percent of election bets above 10,000 dollars favored Democrats.
• Bet size matters when interpreting partisan positioning. The Democratic tilt among large trades did not extend to wagers under 100 dollars, which were mostly evenly divided.
• The findings have a defined cutoff. The research covered data through November 2; Ye’s explanation links the size divide to differing preferences for likely outcomes and long shots, rather than establishing election results.