Infiniti FeedNov 4, 2026 · 2:00 AM ET

Prediction market study points to concentrated accuracy and uneven profits

Mogaz reports Judith Levine's critique that a working paper from London Business School and Yale scholars found almost every wagerer's results were no better than chance, with market accuracy coming from around 3 percent of accounts. It adds that three-quarters of the profits went to 0.1 percent of accounts, and that of at least 2.3 million Polymarket accounts, just 2,000 netted almost half a billion dollars.

A small share of prediction-market accounts appears to underpin market accuracy while an even smaller group captures most profits, according to Mogaz’s account of Judith Levine’s critique of a working paper.

Accuracy rests on a narrow group

The paper, by scholars from London Business School and Yale, found that almost every wagerer’s results were no better than chance, according to Mogaz. Around 3 percent of accounts accounted for market accuracy.

That finding draws a distinction between a market’s forecasting performance and the results of its participants. Accurate market signals do not necessarily mean that most people placing wagers demonstrate forecasting skill.

Profits are more concentrated still

According to Mogaz, 0.1 percent of accounts received three-quarters of the profits. The reported concentration of earnings was therefore substantially narrower than the group associated with market accuracy.

Of at least 2.3 million Polymarket accounts, just 2,000 netted almost half a billion dollars, Mogaz reported. These figures describe accounts, rather than establishing how many distinct people were behind them.

What it means for prediction markets

Market accuracy and individual performance are different measures. The reported findings suggest that useful aggregate forecasts can coexist with chance-level results for almost every wagerer.
Participation does not imply broadly distributed profits. The figures place three-quarters of profits with 0.1 percent of accounts.
The findings need context. The supplied summary does not specify the paper’s study period or methodology, limiting conclusions about how broadly the results apply.

PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published: Nov 4, 2026 · 2:00 AM ET

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Mogaz
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Prediction market study points to concentrated accuracy and uneven profits

Accuracy rests on a narrow group

Profits are more concentrated still

What it means for prediction markets

Sources & attribution

Related

Accuracy rests on a narrow group

Profits are more concentrated still

What it means for prediction markets