Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Talia Gibson wins priced at 2.0% on Kalshi, down 25.0 points, on $1.1M traded · More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 priced at 94.1% on Kalshi, down 0.5 points, on $31.5M traded
PredictionBubbles' sports board, fresh on its Oct. 28, 12:10 UTC read, lists the Gibson contract as its largest downward sports move, in a sports markets category…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
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Talia Gibson’s win contract on Kalshi stood at a market-implied probability of 2.0%, down 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $1.1M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. Its Oct. 28, 12:10 UTC snapshot identified the contract as the largest downward move on its sports board.
The reading preceded the Oct 28, 2026 · 8:09 AM ET publication timestamp. The supplied material does not identify Gibson’s opponent, the competition, the contract’s resolution deadline or the reason for the decline.
PredictionBubbles ranks market moves by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. That ranking is separate from its volume table: Gibson’s position as the largest downward mover does not make the contract the most actively traded sports market.
According to PredictionBubbles, the snapshot covered 506 open sports markets, comprising 204 on Kalshi and 302 on Polymarket. Its embedded display shows the 300 largest markets by volume, while the full board includes all 506.
The highest-volume sports contract at the latest refresh concerned whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. That Polymarket contract had $36.6M traded, according to the site.
PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. It displays exchange-published prices rather than accepting wagers, holding funds or offering accounts; those prices reflect traders’ assessments of outcomes, not confirmed results.
Kalshi’s market on whether tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025 was priced at 94.1%, down 0.5 percentage points over 24 hours, in the Oct 28, 2026, 8:09 AM ET snapshot. Total traded volume stood at $31.5M.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the contract was the most heavily traded market on its board for questions outside its main categories at the latest refresh. The price continued to imply a strong expectation of more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025, despite the small decline.
The supplied news-search summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore offers no fresh reporting that explains the price movement or independently establishes the underlying layoff trend.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its board covered 25 markets in this category: 23 from Kalshi and 2 from Polymarket. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the venues continues between updates.
The site defines volume as total trading reported by the venue, rather than trading during the latest 24-hour period. Its volume ranking is also separate from its ranking by absolute probability movement, so the contract’s leading turnover does not mean it recorded the largest price change.