Talia Gibson wins priced at 2.0% on Kalshi, down 25.0 points, on $1.1M traded

Talia Gibson’s win contract on Kalshi stood at a market-implied probability of 2.0%, down 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $1.1M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. Its Oct. 28, 12:10 UTC snapshot identified the contract as the largest downward move on its sports board.

A sharp move, with limited event detail

The reading preceded the Oct 28, 2026 · 8:09 AM ET publication timestamp. The supplied material does not identify Gibson’s opponent, the competition, the contract’s resolution deadline or the reason for the decline.

PredictionBubbles ranks market moves by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. That ranking is separate from its volume table: Gibson’s position as the largest downward mover does not make the contract the most actively traded sports market.

The broader sports board

According to PredictionBubbles, the snapshot covered 506 open sports markets, comprising 204 on Kalshi and 302 on Polymarket. Its embedded display shows the 300 largest markets by volume, while the full board includes all 506.

The highest-volume sports contract at the latest refresh concerned whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship. That Polymarket contract had $36.6M traded, according to the site.

PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. It displays exchange-published prices rather than accepting wagers, holding funds or offering accounts; those prices reflect traders’ assessments of outcomes, not confirmed results.

What it means for prediction markets

• The decline is measured in percentage points. Gibson’s 25.0-point fall describes the change in implied probability over 24 hours, not a 25.0% relative decrease.
• Volume and movement measure different things. The $1.1M figure is total traded volume, not a measure of money traded specifically during the decline.
• The snapshot does not explain the catalyst. The supplied material offers no event-specific evidence linking the repricing to a score, injury or other development.
• Timing and contract terms matter. The 2.0% reading belongs to the stated refresh. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket may differ in wording and resolution rules.