Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 25, 2026 · 3:39 AM ET

Seamus Power’s contract to win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship was priced at 28.0% on Kalshi, up 17.0 percentage points, with $716K traded, in the supplied market headline published Oct 25, 2026 · 3:39 AM ET. The figures describe a shift in market pricing, not a confirmed tournament result.

A substantial repricing, with limited context

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board measures changes in implied probability over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 25 Oct 2026, 07:05 UTC and says the board refreshes every 15 minutes.

The distinction between percentage points and percentage growth matters here: Power’s reported increase is 17.0 points, not a 17.0% relative gain. PredictionBubbles ranks moves by their absolute size in probability points; trading volume does not affect that ranking.

The supplied source excerpt does not contain Power’s individual market entry, so it does not independently corroborate the headline’s price, move or volume. It also provides no tournament developments explaining the repricing and does not establish the measurement period for the headline’s $716K trading figure.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported move signals stronger market confidence, not a result. A 28.0% price still places Power’s implied chance below half.
• Volume and liquidity are different measures. The $716K traded figure provides activity context but does not establish how much trading the market could absorb without moving.
• The catalyst remains unverified. The supplied material supports describing a reported repricing, but not attributing it to a particular performance update or news event.

The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 was priced at 62.5%, up 6.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $354K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the upward moves in its political/election category.

The figures indicate a stronger market-implied expectation that the ceasefire will last through the contract’s deadline. The supplied material, however, identifies no diplomatic announcement or other development explaining the repricing.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles’ snapshot was read from the venues on 25 Oct 2026, 07:05 UTC. The service refreshes every 15 minutes, drawing prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and comparing them with their levels 24 hours earlier.

According to PredictionBubbles, its ranking covers 2,022 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; the board ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points, rather than relative percentage gains.

What the figures do—and do not—show

The 6.5-point increase measures the change in the ceasefire contract’s price, not a 6.5% relative gain. PredictionBubbles lists trading volume as context but does not use it to determine a market’s position in the movers ranking.

The $354K traded figure adds context to the move, but the supplied material does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. Nor does it include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise treatment of any ceasefire disruption unstated.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 62.5% price puts continued observance through November 15 above an even chance in market-implied terms, without establishing that outcome as certain.
• Magnitude: The 6.5-point rise represents a clear 24-hour repricing; it does not independently verify any change in conditions between Israel and Iran.
• Interpretation: Trading volume, liquidity and settlement terms are separate considerations. The supplied figures establish the price move but do not fully explain its cause or durability.