Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 priced at 62.5% on Polymarket, up 6.5 points, on $354K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 was priced at 62.5%, up 6.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $354K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the upward moves in its political/election category.

The figures indicate a stronger market-implied expectation that the ceasefire will last through the contract’s deadline. The supplied material, however, identifies no diplomatic announcement or other development explaining the repricing.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles’ snapshot was read from the venues on 25 Oct 2026, 07:05 UTC. The service refreshes every 15 minutes, drawing prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and comparing them with their levels 24 hours earlier.

According to PredictionBubbles, its ranking covers 2,022 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify; the board ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points, rather than relative percentage gains.

What the figures do—and do not—show

The 6.5-point increase measures the change in the ceasefire contract’s price, not a 6.5% relative gain. PredictionBubbles lists trading volume as context but does not use it to determine a market’s position in the movers ranking.

The $354K traded figure adds context to the move, but the supplied material does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. Nor does it include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise treatment of any ceasefire disruption unstated.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The 62.5% price puts continued observance through November 15 above an even chance in market-implied terms, without establishing that outcome as certain.
• Magnitude: The 6.5-point rise represents a clear 24-hour repricing; it does not independently verify any change in conditions between Israel and Iran.
• Interpretation: Trading volume, liquidity and settlement terms are separate considerations. The supplied figures establish the price move but do not fully explain its cause or durability.