xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 priced at 1.1% on Polymarket, down 0.1 points, on $210K traded

xAI priced at 1.1% for year-end AI lead

The Polymarket outcome for xAI having the best AI model at the end of December 2026 was priced at a market-implied probability of 1.1%, according to PredictionBubbles. The probability fell 0.1 percentage points over the previous 24 hours, with $210K in traded volume.

The figures put xAI at a low implied likelihood of meeting the contract’s year-end condition. The supplied material does not include the contract’s benchmark or resolution criteria, so it does not establish how “best AI model” will be determined.

A snapshot of the wider tech board

According to the supplied summary, PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 28, 21:55 UTC crawl covered 53 open technology markets with $66.8M traded. The story’s publication timestamp was Oct 28, 2026, at 6:09 PM ET.

The supplied page text separately lists 56 open markets: 13 from Kalshi and 43 from Polymarket. That count differs from the crawl summary and should not be treated as the same snapshot. PredictionBubbles says its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues is continuous.

The board distinguishes price movement from trading activity: its movement rankings use absolute probability changes over 24 hours, while its volume rankings use total traded volume. According to PredictionBubbles, the most-traded technology market at the page’s last refresh was Kalshi’s question about whether the U.S. would confirm that aliens exist before 2027, with $29.7M traded.

What it means for prediction markets

• A low price, not a settled result: The 1.1% figure reflects the market-implied probability for the xAI outcome, not an independent assessment of its models.
• Volume and movement measure different things: The $210K represents traded volume; the 0.1-percentage-point decline captures the probability change over 24 hours.
• Resolution details remain essential: Without the contract’s benchmark and settlement rules, the supplied information does not support a broader conclusion about xAI’s technical standing.
• Timing matters: The differing board counts underline the need to distinguish the Oct. 28 crawl from the separately supplied page snapshot.