ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, down 1.2 points, on $225K traded

A Polymarket contract on whether the ECB will announce a 25 bps increase at its October 2026 meeting was priced at 0.1%, down 1.2 percentage points over 24 hours, with $225K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot from PredictionBubbles.

The price indicates that traders assigned very little probability to that specific increase. It does not establish which alternative policy outcome they favored, because the supplied material does not include prices for the other outcomes.

The finance-board snapshot

PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 28, 22:13 UTC crawl recorded 187 open markets and $162.3M traded across its finance board. The ECB contract was highlighted in the supplied update published Oct 28, 2026 at 6:39 PM ET.

The accompanying page text reports a different count: 188 markets, comprising 20 from Kalshi and 168 from Polymarket. The supplied material does not explain the discrepancy, so those page totals should be distinguished from the crawl snapshot.

Reading the price

According to PredictionBubbles, its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The site defines the daily move in percentage points and volume as total trading reported by the venue. The $225K figure therefore should not be read as trading exclusively during the latest 24 hours.

What it means for prediction markets

• A narrowly defined outcome is near zero: The 0.1% price concerns a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting—not every possible ECB decision.
• The move measures probability, not policy: The 1.2-point decline is a change in the contract’s implied likelihood, separate from the 25 bps rate increase being tested.
• Timing and contract terms matter: PredictionBubbles republishes venue prices at 15-minute intervals and notes that related contracts across platforms can have different wording and resolution rules.