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Probability of WTI oil reaching $120.01 by December 31 climbs to 36 percent

Kalshi traders raised the chance that the maximum WTI front-month settle price reaches 120.01 dollars by December 31, 2026 to 36 percent, up 7.7 points in 24 hours. The market has 1 million dollars in lifetime volume and 374,000 dollars in open interest.

According to PredictionBubbles, the probability on Kalshi that the maximum WTI front-month settle price reaches 120.01 dollars by December 31, 2026 rose to 36 percent, a gain of 7.7 points over 24 hours.

Pricing and participation

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET, puts the contract’s implied probability higher than a day earlier, though still below 50 percent.

PredictionBubbles reported 1 million dollars in lifetime trading volume and 374,000 dollars in open interest. Those figures describe cumulative trading activity and outstanding positions, respectively, rather than the amount traded during the latest 24-hour move.

The settlement measure matters

The event concerns the maximum WTI front-month settle price through December 31, 2026. It is not simply a question of where WTI settles on the final day of that period.

The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the probability increase or provide further contract-resolution details.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Odds moved materially: The 7.7-point increase brought the implied probability to 36 percent, but the threshold being reached remains the less likely outcome in current pricing.
  • The price measure is specific: An intraday oil-price move is not the same as a front-month settle price; the contract’s stated measure is central to interpreting the event.
  • Activity figures have limits: The 1 million dollars in lifetime volume and 374,000 dollars in open interest do not establish how much new trading drove the latest repricing.
KalshiOilInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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