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Kalshi gasoline contracts put $4.00 threshold near an even chance

No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used, held out or web-held on Oct. 30–31 (the Polymarket…

Kalshi has opened markets on average gas prices, with the contract for a price above $4.00 trading at an implied probability of 49% and the contract for a price above $3.80 at 87%, according to the supplied market update.

The update was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 11:24 AM ET. Its headline supplies the contract levels and pricing, but no source links or full report were provided.

Two thresholds, different expectations

The quoted probabilities place the $4.00 threshold close to an even chance, while pricing a substantially greater likelihood of exceeding $3.80. These are market-implied probabilities, not confirmed outcomes for average gas prices.

The accompanying summary says there was no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It describes search results as recirculating items already used, held out or web-held on Oct. 30–31, but ends before providing further detail. The supplied material does not specify the contracts’ measurement date, reference data or settlement rules.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Thresholds matter: The quoted probabilities differ by 38 percentage points between the above-$3.80 and above-$4.00 contracts.
  • Comparability remains unverified: Without settlement terms, readers cannot establish whether both contracts use the same measurement period and reference data.
  • Pricing is a snapshot: The supplied update provides no trading history, volume or liquidity figures with which to assess movement or market depth.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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