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New Kalshi contract puts Trump Alaska visit probability at 16%

PredictionBubbles' new-markets board, read Nov. 1, lists the Alaska visit contract among the newest markets on its board, created about an hour before the read, at 16%,…

A Kalshi contract asking whether Donald Trump will visit Alaska before Dec 1, 2026 was priced at 16%, with $1K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ new-markets board.

The item was published Nov 1, 2026 · 12:24 PM ET. The supplied summary describes a Nov. 1 reading of the board, placing the quoted price roughly a month before the contract’s stated deadline.

A newly listed market

PredictionBubbles listed the Alaska visit contract among its newest markets. According to the summary, it had been created about an hour before the board was read.

The available material provides only that early snapshot. It includes no subsequent price changes, details of trading activity beyond the $1K total, or information about Trump’s travel plans. The 16% price is therefore a market reading, not evidence of a scheduled visit.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 16% quote indicates that the market priced a qualifying visit as the less likely outcome at the time of the snapshot.
  • The contract was about an hour old when observed, with $1K traded; the material does not establish a sustained pricing trend.
  • The stated cutoff is before Dec 1, 2026, but the supplied summary does not include the contract’s full resolution criteria.
PredictionMarketsKalshiElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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