Who wins the Senate: Democrats at 63%, with Kalshi at 62.7c and Polymarket at 64c

Senate pricing centers on 63%

Democrats are priced at 63% overall to win Senate control in DeFi Rate’s Oct. 15 snapshot. The accompanying platform prices are 62.7c on Kalshi and 64c on Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate.

The snapshot, published Oct 15, 2026 · 5:54 AM ET, places Democrats ahead in the Senate market, but leaves considerably more uncertainty than the reported House pricing.

House markets show a stronger Democratic lean

According to DeFi Rate, Democratic House control is priced at 90% overall. The platform figures are 90.3c on Kalshi and 91c on Polymarket.

Polymarket’s Democratic-control prices exceed Kalshi’s in both chambers. The larger distinction, however, is between the chambers: the reported overall House probability is 27 percentage points above the Senate figure.

Only the summary was available; the source page text was unavailable. The supplied material does not explain how DeFi Rate calculates its overall figures or provide trading volume, recent price changes or contract-resolution terms.

What it means for prediction markets

• The chamber distinction matters: The 63% Senate figure signals a less decisive Democratic advantage than the 90% House figure.
• Platform prices are close, but not identical: Senate contracts stand at 62.7c on Kalshi and 64c on Polymarket; House contracts stand at 90.3c and 91c, respectively.
• This is a snapshot, not a trend: Without earlier prices or trading data, the figures do not establish whether Democratic prospects are strengthening or weakening.