Perriello pricing overtakes McGuire in Kalshi’s Virginia 5th district market
PredictionBubbles reports its politics board, refreshed every 15 minutes, ranks the Kalshi market on a Democratic win in Virginia's 5th district, priced for Tom Perriello, as the biggest United States election mover of the last 24 hours, up 23 points to 57.0 percent on 841,000 dollars traded, reversing earlier pricing that favoured Republican incumbent John McGuire.
Kalshi’s market for a Democratic victory in Virginia’s 5th district, priced for Tom Perriello, rose 23 points over 24 hours to 57.0 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.
The move reversed earlier pricing that favoured Republican incumbent John McGuire. PredictionBubbles ranked the contract as the largest United States election mover over that 24-hour period.
Trading activity and timing
The market recorded 841,000 dollars traded, according to PredictionBubbles. That figure accompanies the price change, but the supplied summary does not specify the period covered by the trading total.
The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 5:15 PM ET. PredictionBubbles refreshes its politics board every 15 minutes, making the reported ranking and price a snapshot rather than a final election assessment.
What it means for prediction markets
- A change in the favoured outcome: At 57.0 percent, the Democratic-win contract moved above the halfway mark, reversing the earlier advantage in pricing for McGuire.
- A large relative move: The 23-point increase led PredictionBubbles’ United States election rankings for the preceding 24 hours.
- Limited evidence on the cause: The supplied summary identifies the repricing and trading total but gives no explanation for the shift. The market price is not an election result.
Sources & attribution
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