US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 83.5% on Polymarket, up 7.0 points, on $6.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers and politics boards list the ceasefire-continuation contract among their upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire will continue through October 31 was priced at 83.5%, up 7.0 probability points, with $6.1M traded, in the update published Oct 25, 2026, at 2:54 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers and politics boards placed the contract among rising political markets. The price reflects traders’ assessment of ceasefire continuation through the specified deadline, rather than independent confirmation of conditions on the ground.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points, not relative percentage gains. Its supplied movers snapshot drew venue prices on 25 Oct 2026, at 06:34 UTC, with updates every 15 minutes.
The board covers Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks eligible contracts across 2,025 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open markets with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine the movement ranking, according to PredictionBubbles.
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the ceasefire contract’s rise. It also does not specify the period covered by the headline’s $6.1M traded figure or provide the contract’s detailed settlement conditions.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is a repricing: The 7.0-point increase shows a higher market-implied probability of continuation through October 31, not a confirmed change in the ceasefire’s status.
Volume needs context: The $6.1M figure does not, by itself, establish current liquidity or how much trading accompanied the latest move.
The deadline matters: This contract concerns US–Iran ceasefire continuation through October 31; it should not be treated as a forecast for a longer period.
The catalyst remains unspecified: The supplied reporting supports the price movement, but not an explanation for why traders changed their assessment.