Kalshi and Polymarket put low odds on a 2026 recession
Sikt Intelligence, refreshing from Kalshi and Polymarket public data on October 31, shows both venues pricing a 2026 US recession in single digits, with Kalshi at 2.5 percent and Polymarket at 6 percent.
According to Sikt Intelligence, prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket assigned single-digit probabilities to a US recession in 2026 in an October 31 refresh.
Kalshi priced the outcome at 2.5 percent, while Polymarket put it at 6 percent. Both readings indicated that a recession was the less likely outcome in those markets.
Two venues, different probabilities
Sikt Intelligence based its update on public data from Kalshi and Polymarket. The report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 6:45 PM ET.
The figures showed agreement on the broad outlook but a difference in pricing: Polymarket assigned a higher probability than Kalshi. The supplied summary does not explain that divergence or provide the contracts’ resolution criteria.
What it means for prediction markets
- Both venues priced a 2026 US recession as unlikely, not impossible.
- The 2.5 percent Kalshi reading and 6 percent Polymarket reading are an October 31 snapshot, rather than evidence of a trend.
- Without contract terms or resolution criteria, the summary alone cannot establish whether the two markets measure precisely the same outcome.
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