Recession odds retreat as prediction markets discount a 2026 downturn

Prediction markets assign low probabilities to a US recession in 2026, with Kalshi at 2.5 percent and Polymarket at 5.5 percent, according to Sikt Intelligence.

The figures were published on Nov 1, 2026, at 4:30 AM ET. Both platforms’ prices declined over the preceding seven days.

Lower odds across both platforms

Kalshi’s 2026 recession price fell one percentage point over that period, while Polymarket’s dropped three percentage points. Polymarket still prices the outcome three percentage points above Kalshi.

The shared downward direction contrasts with the different probability levels. The supplied summary does not identify a reason for either decline.

A higher reading for 2027

Kalshi’s market for a US recession in 2027 is priced at 20 percent, according to Sikt Intelligence. That is substantially above its 2.5 percent reading for 2026.

The summary provides neither a seven-day change for Kalshi’s 2027 market nor a comparable Polymarket price for that year, limiting comparisons beyond the reported levels.

What it means for prediction markets

• Near-term pricing has softened: Both platforms lowered their implied probability of a 2026 recession over the past seven days.
• A platform gap remains: Polymarket’s 5.5 percent price is three percentage points higher than Kalshi’s 2.5 percent.
• The time horizon matters: Kalshi’s 20 percent price for 2027 signals a higher implied probability for that year than for 2026, but the summary does not establish how the 2027 outlook has changed.