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Odds of the US declaring an end to the Iranian blockade reach 44.2 percent

Polymarket traders raised the chance that the United States announces the end of the Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 to 44.2 percent, up 4.6 points in 24 hours. The market has 4.6 million dollars in lifetime volume, with 68,000 dollars traded in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2027.

Polymarket’s probability of the United States announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 reached 44.2 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The price rose 4.6 percentage points over 24 hours.

Probability rises but remains below half

The update, published on Oct 31, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET, shows traders moving toward a greater likelihood of an announcement before the deadline. Even after that increase, the implied probability remained below 50 percent.

The contract concerns a United States announcement ending the blockade by December 31, 2026. The supplied report does not identify a development driving the price change.

Volume and resolution

According to PredictionBubbles, lifetime trading volume stood at 4.6 million dollars, including 68,000 dollars traded in the preceding day. Those figures describe trading activity, rather than the probability of the outcome.

The market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, following the December 31, 2026 announcement deadline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 4.6-percentage-point increase marks a shift toward an announcement, but the 44.2 percent probability still places that outcome below even odds.
  • The distinction between an announcement and developments affecting the blockade matters: the reported contract specifically concerns a United States announcement.
  • With no catalyst identified in the supplied report, the price move alone does not establish why traders changed their assessment.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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