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Iran invasion contract leads daily board with $76 million traded

The daily note for October 31 calls the contract the largest market on its board, with 62 days left before it closes. Traders price roughly a one in six chance, well above the 1 cent longshots that make up the next largest markets by volume.

A Polymarket contract on whether the US will invade Iran before 2027 topped the board in PicksByOdds’ October 31 daily note. It traded at 17 cents, with $76,044,226 in volume.

A higher price than the next-largest markets

The note, published Oct 31, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET, identified the contract as the largest market on its board. It had 62 days remaining before closing, according to PicksByOdds.

The 17-cent price corresponds to roughly a one-in-six implied chance. That makes the outcome a minority expectation among traders, rather than the market’s central expectation.

By comparison, the next-largest markets by volume were priced at 1 cent, according to PicksByOdds. The Iran contract therefore combined the board’s largest volume with a substantially higher implied probability than those longshots.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and probability tell different stories: The $76,044,226 in volume establishes the contract’s prominence on this board; the 17-cent price indicates that traders still regarded the event as unlikely.
  • The deadline matters: With 62 days left, the contract concerns an invasion before 2027—not the likelihood of one over an open-ended period.
  • The snapshot has limits: The note provides a price and volume ranking, but no earlier prices from which to establish whether expectations were rising or falling.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PicksByOdds
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