Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide priced at 8.0% on Polymarket, down 20.5 points, on $574K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of homicide was priced at 8.0%, down 20.5 percentage points, with $574K traded, according to the supplied market summary. PredictionBubbles’ movers and politics boards placed the contract among their largest downward moves.

The figures describe a change in the market’s assessment of a potential conviction—not a report that a conviction has occurred. The supplied material identifies no court development or other catalyst for the decline.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 24 Oct 2026, 11:40 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.

The board ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. The Robinson contract’s 20.5-point decline therefore represents a shift in its implied probability, not a 20.5% relative fall. Trading volume provides context but does not determine the ranking.

What the available figures leave open

PredictionBubbles says the snapshot covers 2,010 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify, so its largest-mover rankings describe a filtered universe rather than every contract on the two venues.

The supplied page text does not include the Robinson contract’s individual listing, resolution conditions or probability history. It also does not establish the reporting period for the $574K traded figure. Those gaps limit what can be concluded about the timing, trading depth and legal significance of the repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• The signal is a lower implied probability: the contract stood at 8.0% after a 20.5-percentage-point decline.
• The cause remains unverified: the supplied material does not connect the move to a specific legal event.
• Volume is not liquidity: the $574K traded figure alone does not establish how much trading could occur near the displayed price.
• Contract terms matter: without the resolution conditions, the price cannot be read as an unrestricted forecast of Robinson’s eventual legal outcome.