BYU win the College Football Playoff National Championship priced at 4.0% on Kalshi, up 2 points, on $3.9M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers and sports boards list the BYU playoff contract among their upward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has…
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BYU’s Kalshi contract to win the College Football Playoff National Championship was priced at 4.0%, up 2 probability points, with $3.9M traded, in the Oct 24, 2026 · 7:24 AM ET update.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers and sports boards placed the BYU contract among rising sports markets. That placement was within the sports category, rather than as the overall lead mover.
Reading the move
PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours in probability points, not relative percentages. BYU’s 2-point increase therefore represents an upward adjustment in its market-implied championship probability, while the 4.0% price still places the outcome at a low implied likelihood.
The supplied material does not identify a game result, team announcement or other catalyst for the move. It also does not specify the period covered by the BYU contract’s $3.9M traded figure, so that amount should not be treated as confirmed 24-hour turnover.
How the board is built
According to PredictionBubbles, the movers board refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 24 Oct 2026, 11:10 UTC and covered 2,012 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures.
Rankings depend on the absolute size of the 24-hour probability-point change; volume and liquidity do not affect placement. Only open markets with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and the board treats a change of at least one probability point as a move.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction and level are different signals: BYU moved higher, but its 4.0% implied probability remained low.
Turnover needs context: The reported $3.9M traded does not establish how much activity accompanied the latest 2-point increase.
The cause remains unverified: The board documents repricing, but the supplied reporting does not explain why traders changed their assessment.