US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 priced at 28.0% on Polymarket, down 5.5 points, on $165K traded

The Polymarket contract on a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by December 31 was priced at 28.0%, down 5.5 probability points, with $165K traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 24, 2026, at 8:24 AM ET. According to PredictionBubbles’ listing summary, the contract appeared among declining political markets on its movers and politics boards.

A decline in implied odds

The move reflects a lower market-implied probability of an agreement by the contract’s deadline. PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours in probability points—not relative percentages—so the reported decline is a 5.5-point adjustment, rather than a 5.5% fall.

The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic announcement or other event behind the change. It also does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise requirements for a qualifying Hormuz agreement unspecified.

How the tracker measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the movers board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 24 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC, with rankings covering 2,014 markets that live longer than 14 days.

The tracker ranks markets by the absolute size of their 24-hour probability-point changes. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking. Markets without a valid day-earlier comparison are excluded, as are resolved contracts.

The $165K traded figure therefore adds context to the Hormuz contract’s repricing, but it does not establish market depth or explain the selling pressure. The provided source-page text describes the board’s methodology without reproducing the individual Hormuz listing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Deadline-specific pricing: The 28.0% reading concerns an agreement by December 31, not the broader prospect of an eventual US-Iran agreement.
• Repricing, not confirmation: The 5.5-point decline shows a shift in market pricing; the supplied reporting does not establish a corresponding diplomatic setback.
• Terms and liquidity remain important gaps: Neither detailed settlement rules nor order-book depth is provided, limiting what can be inferred from the price and traded-volume figures alone.