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Democratic election odds face scrutiny as six Senate races remain toss-ups

Morningstar reports Tufts University political science professor Brian Schaffner cautioned that prediction markets may be leaning too far toward Democrats on Election Day, with the House at 94 to 95 percent and the Senate at 77 to 78 percent while six Senate races remain rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report analysts.

Prediction markets may be overstating Democrats’ prospects on Election Day, Tufts University political science professor Brian Schaffner cautioned, according to Morningstar.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, put market probabilities for Democrats at 94 to 95 percent for the House and 77 to 78 percent for the Senate.

Senate uncertainty complicates the outlook

Schaffner’s warning comes as Cook Political Report analysts continue to classify six Senate races as toss-ups, according to Morningstar. Those unresolved contests provide a counterpoint to the markets’ strong Democratic lean.

The distinction is between confidence in an overall outcome and uncertainty in individual races. The reported odds favor Democrats in both chambers, but Schaffner’s caution challenges whether that confidence is warranted—not whether a Democratic win is possible.

What it means for prediction markets

  • House pricing leaves little room for an alternative outcome: The reported 94 to 95 percent probability reflects especially strong confidence in Democrats.
  • Senate pricing warrants a separate reading: Markets put Democrats at 77 to 78 percent even as Cook Political Report analysts rate six races as toss-ups.
  • The warning is not a replacement forecast: The supplied summary includes no alternative probability from Schaffner with which to measure the potential overconfidence.
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