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Polymarket trader stakes $15,239 against NVIDIA’s year-end market cap lead

Quiver Quantitative reports a trader bought 15,239 dollars of No shares at 42 percent on Polymarket on whether NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026, for a potential profit of about 21,439 dollars. The Yes price is now 53 percent, down from 66 percent a day earlier, with Apple priced at 44 percent on the same market.

A trader bought $15,239 in No shares on Polymarket’s question of whether NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026, according to Quiver Quantitative.

The purchase was made at 42 percent, with a potential profit of about $21,439 if the position wins. The reporting was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 4:45 PM ET.

NVIDIA’s Yes price falls

NVIDIA’s Yes price is now 53 percent, compared with 66 percent a day earlier, according to Quiver Quantitative. That represents a decline of 13 percentage points.

Apple is priced at 44 percent on the same market. The supplied figures put NVIDIA ahead of Apple by 9 percentage points, despite the decline in NVIDIA’s price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The $15,239 position is a wager against NVIDIA finishing December 31, 2026, as the largest company by market cap—not a direct bet on Apple winning.
  • NVIDIA’s move from 66 percent to 53 percent marks a lower market-implied probability of a year-end lead, though its Yes price remains above Apple’s 44 percent.
  • The potential profit of about $21,439 is conditional on the No position winning; it is not a realized return.
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    Quiver Quantitative
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