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Talarico reaches 97 percent as Texas Senate market awaits race call

Polyguana reports James Talarico has climbed to 97 percent in the Texas Senate market against Ken Paxton, up from 85 percent at 8:15 p.m. ET and 91 cents on Kalshi at 8:03 p.m. The race had not been called in the latest read, and Texas remains the most heavily traded single Senate race of the cycle.

James Talarico reached 97 percent in the Texas Senate prediction market against Ken Paxton, according to Polyguana’s Nov 3, 2026 update published at 9:00 PM ET. The race remained uncalled in the latest reading.

Prices move toward Talarico

Polyguana reported that Talarico had risen from 85 percent at 8:15 p.m. ET to 97 percent in the latest market snapshot, a gain of 12 percentage points.

An earlier Kalshi reading put Talarico at 91 cents at 8:03 p.m., according to Polyguana. The summary identifies Kalshi for that observation but does not specify the platform for the subsequent percentage readings.

Heavy trading, unresolved result

Texas remained the cycle’s most heavily traded individual Senate race, according to Polyguana. The supplied update did not include a trading-volume figure.

The latest price showed a strong market preference for Talarico, but it was not a confirmed election outcome. At the time of the update, the reported market move had not been accompanied by a race call.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The increase from 85 percent to 97 percent indicates a substantial shift toward Talarico between 8:15 p.m. ET and the latest reading.
  • The 91-cent Kalshi observation should retain its platform and timestamp context; the supplied information does not establish a single-platform price series.
  • With the race still uncalled, the distinction between market-implied probability and a confirmed result remained central.
KalshiSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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