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Texas Senate contracts draw over $112 million across two prediction platforms

The El Paso Times reports Kalshi volume on the Texas Senate race reached 96,969,926 dollars with James Talarico at 74 percent against Ken Paxton at 26 percent, while Polymarket added 15,162,665 dollars with Talarico at 75 percent, taking combined trading in the single race past 112 million dollars.

The Texas Senate race has generated more than $112 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the El Paso Times, which described it as the country’s most heavily traded race.

Talarico leads on both platforms

The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET, put Kalshi’s trading volume at $96,969,926. James Talarico stood at 74 percent, against 26 percent for Ken Paxton.

Polymarket accounted for another $15,162,665 in trading, with Talarico at 75 percent, according to the El Paso Times.

Those figures place Talarico’s readings just one percentage point apart across the two platforms. Kalshi contributed the larger share of the combined volume in the single race.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Similar pricing across venues: Talarico’s 74 percent reading on Kalshi and 75 percent on Polymarket show closely aligned assessments, though neither implies a certain result.
  • Volume is not a vote count: The more than $112 million traded measures contract activity, not ballots or the number of people backing either candidate.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    El Paso Times
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