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Tennessee favored in Knoxville, but wider winning margin draws less confidence

Kalshi traders price Tennessee at 65 percent and Kentucky at 35 percent for their meeting in Knoxville, with about 229,000 dollars in volume on the game market and Tennessee winning by over 6.5 points priced at 47 percent.

According to Kalshi, Tennessee is priced at 65 percent to beat Kentucky in their meeting in Knoxville, while Kentucky is priced at 35 percent.

The figures, published Nov 8, 2026 · 7:00 AM ET, place Tennessee ahead in the game market but leave a substantial probability assigned to a Kentucky win.

Win probability outpaces margin confidence

About 229,000 dollars has been traded on the game market, according to Kalshi. That figure measures trading volume, rather than the probability of either team winning.

Tennessee winning by over 6.5 points is priced at 47 percent. The pricing distinguishes between Tennessee winning outright and winning by that larger margin: the former is favored, while the latter sits below 50 percent.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Tennessee’s 65 percent price and Kentucky’s 35 percent price indicate a clear favorite, not a certain outcome.
  • The 47 percent price for Tennessee winning by over 6.5 points is 18 percentage points below its outright-win price.
  • The roughly 229,000 dollars in game-market volume provides a measure of trading activity; it does not establish how accurate the prices will prove.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
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