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Peltola contracts near full value as Alaska awaits outstanding ballots

Action Network reports Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 637 votes with about 60,000 mostly mail ballots still outstanding, while Kalshi volume on the race has climbed to 28.4 million dollars and no new count is required before November 10.

Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate race contracts are priced at 98 cents on Polymarket and 96.9 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. Those prices stand alongside a narrow reported lead over Dan Sullivan.

Action Network’s update, published Nov 8, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, puts Peltola ahead by 637 votes. About 60,000 ballots remain outstanding, mostly mail ballots.

Prices and participation ahead of the next count

Trading volume on Kalshi’s market for the race has reached 28.4 million dollars, according to Action Network. The reported activity accompanies prices close to full value on both platforms, despite the unresolved ballot count.

No new count is required before November 10. That leaves a distinction between the confidence reflected in market prices and the incomplete electoral tally: the outstanding ballots substantially outnumber Peltola’s current margin.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Prices imply confidence, not a completed result. Peltola’s 98-cent Polymarket price and 96.9-cent Kalshi price contrast with a lead of just 637 votes.
  • The remaining count is consequential. About 60,000 mostly mail ballots are still outstanding; the supplied reporting does not establish how they will divide between the candidates.
  • Timing matters for information flow. With no new count required before November 10, traders may face a gap between market activity and updated vote totals.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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    https://www.actionnetwork.com
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