South Carolina Senate: markets price Graham at 86c on both venues despite one-point polls

Graham is the clear favorite in prediction-market pricing for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, despite a much narrower lead in an InsiderAdvantage survey. According to Action Network, Graham contracts were priced at 86c on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Andrews contracts stood at 16c on Polymarket and 15c on Kalshi. The reported prices therefore show agreement across the two venues on the favorite, with only a small difference in pricing for Andrews.

A narrow polling lead, a strong market favorite

The InsiderAdvantage survey put Graham at 46% and Andrews at 45%, according to Action Network. That one-point advantage presents a closer picture of voter support than the market prices might initially suggest.

The distinction is important: polling percentages measure support, while election contracts reflect expectations about who will win. The supplied material does not include the survey’s field dates, sample size or margin of error, limiting any assessment of how much weight that result should carry against the market snapshot.

What it means for prediction markets

• Both venues favor Graham strongly: The identical 86c prices show no divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi in the reported Graham contracts.
• Close polling is not a win probability: Graham’s 46% to 45% survey lead cannot be compared directly with contract prices as though they measure the same thing.
• The explanation remains uncertain: The available reporting establishes the contrast between polling and pricing, but does not establish why traders assign Graham such a strong position.