Netanyahu out by end of 2026 climbs to 43% on $124.5M traded on Polymarket

Polymarket pricing for Netanyahu to leave office by the end of 2026 rose to 43% from 39% on Monday morning, according to newsbeep.com. The market has recorded $124.5 million in trading volume, with Yes quoted at 43% (+133) and No at 60% (-150).

The key dates are Israel’s Oct. 27 election and Nov. 4, when official results are due to be confirmed. But the year-end market hinges on more than the vote: whether a successor government can take office before Jan. 1 is central to the outcome.

Polling leaves coalition control unresolved

A Kan survey published on Sunday put Netanyahu’s coalition at 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc at 50 and the Arab parties at 13, newsbeep.com reported. A majority requires 61 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party led Likud by 22 seats to 20, even as his bloc lost two seats over a week.

An average of four polls placed the two blocs at about 52 seats each. Meanwhile, Likud officials cited by the Jerusalem Post privately discussed securing 55 to 56 seats—enough, according to the reporting, to prevent a rival coalition from forming.

Choosing a successor is not the same as replacing Netanyahu by December

A separate Polymarket contract on who will be prime minister after the election has attracted $45.8 million in trading. Eisenkot leads that market at 48%, followed by Netanyahu at 31% and Naftali Bennett at 15%, according to newsbeep.com.

The different deadlines help explain why those prices need not align with the year-end departure contract. A former Israeli government spokesman told Fox News that deadlock was the most likely outcome, leaving Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022, underscoring the relevance of prolonged coalition negotiations.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing is a separate uncertainty. An opposition election victory would not alone establish that Netanyahu leaves office before the year-end deadline.
• Coalition arithmetic remains pivotal. Neither bloc is polling at the 61-seat majority threshold; Eisenkot’s bloc has 50 seats in the Kan survey without the Arab parties.
• The contracts measure different outcomes. Eisenkot’s 48% price in the post-election prime minister market is not directly interchangeable with the 43% price for Netanyahu’s departure by the end of 2026.
• The quoted prices require care. Newsbeep.com reports Yes at 43% and No at 60%; those figures should not be presented as a complementary probability split.