Polymarket lists new Red Sea markets: U.S.–Yemen ceasefire through Nov. 30 at 57.5%

Early pricing favors ceasefire survival

A new Polymarket contract puts the probability of a U.S.–Yemen ceasefire lasting through Nov. 30 at 57.5%, with limited trading behind the initial price, according to the supplied market summary.

The contract is one of two Red Sea markets created roughly five hours before the Oct 13, 2026, 4:54 PM ET update. The other concerns the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but the summary cuts off before specifying the outcome being priced or its probability.

Limited detail behind the opening signal

The 57.5% reading places ceasefire survival above an even chance in early trading. The supplied material does not give a traded-volume figure, order-book liquidity or the contract’s settlement criteria, limiting what can be established about the strength and precise scope of that signal.

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market tracker refreshes prices every 15 minutes and distinguishes market-implied probabilities from the actual likelihood of an event. Its supplied overview does not include individual listings for either Red Sea contract, leaving the summary as the only source for their launch timing and the ceasefire price.

What it means for prediction markets

• An early indication, not an established consensus: The 57.5% price favors the ceasefire lasting through Nov. 30, but the summary describes trading as thin.
• Settlement language remains important: Without the ceasefire contract’s full rules, the supplied material does not establish what would count as a breach.
• The second market cannot yet be assessed: The incomplete Bab el-Mandeb Strait description provides neither a defined outcome nor odds, preventing a meaningful comparison between the two contracts.