Graham retains prediction-market advantage despite tied South Carolina Senate poll

Darline Graham is priced at 73 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in the South Carolina Senate race, according to Action Network. That market advantage contrasts with a New York Times and Siena survey showing Graham and Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent.

Polling and market prices diverge

Andrews trades at 28 cents on both exchanges, according to Action Network. The reported prices therefore show a clear favorite in Graham even though the survey gives neither candidate a lead.

The figures, published Nov 1, 2026 · 12:15 PM ET, provide a snapshot of the gap between polling support and market expectations. A candidate’s share of surveyed voters and the price of a contract on an election outcome measure different things; a polling tie does not necessarily imply equal contract prices.

Governor market shows a stronger favorite

In South Carolina’s governor market, Alan Wilson is near 93 cents on each exchange, according to Action Network. His reported price is higher than Graham’s, making the contrast between the two statewide markets another point to watch.

What it means for prediction markets

• The Senate race presents a polling-market gap: Graham’s 73-cent price sits alongside a survey showing both candidates at 48 percent.
• The exchanges show matching prices: Graham is at 73 cents and Andrews at 28 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in the reported snapshot.
• The governor market is more lopsided: Wilson’s price near 93 cents on each exchange signals a stronger market favorite than Graham, without guaranteeing either outcome.