Graham’s Kalshi odds outpace narrow polling edge in South Carolina
Covers reports Kalshi traders price Darline Graham at about 70 percent to win the South Carolina Senate race on Tuesday afternoon, while Nate Silver's FLIPR model projects Graham leading Annie Andrews by only 1.1 points in the polls, one of the larger gaps between market prices and the model in a Senate race today.
Kalshi traders put Darline Graham’s chance of winning the South Carolina Senate race at about 70 percent on Tuesday afternoon, according to Covers. The market favors Graham more clearly than the narrow polling advantage described by Nate Silver’s FLIPR model.
Two measures of the race
FLIPR projects Graham leading Annie Andrews by only 1.1 points in the polls, Covers reported. The report was published Nov 3, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET.
Covers characterized the divergence as one of the larger gaps between market prices and the model in a Senate race today. That places South Carolina among the contests where traders’ confidence and the model’s polling picture appear notably different.
Comparing odds with a polling margin
The figures measure different things: Kalshi’s roughly 70 percent price represents a market-implied chance of victory, while the 1.1-point figure describes a projected polling lead. They are not directly interchangeable, and the supplied reporting does not give a FLIPR win probability or explain what is driving the market price.
What it means for prediction markets
- A clear favorite, but a narrow polling edge: Kalshi favors Graham at about 70 percent despite FLIPR’s projected 1.1-point lead over Andrews.
- The comparison has limits: Without a model-based win probability, the figures do not establish the size of a probability gap between Kalshi and FLIPR.
- Timing matters: The reported price is a Tuesday-afternoon snapshot, not an election result.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Coverscovers.com
- Publisher
- https://www.covers.com
- Source URL
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Covers”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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