Alaska’s late voting deadline could push Senate market resolution into Wednesday
Action Network reports Alaska's final polling places in the Aleutian Islands close at 1 a.m. Eastern, the last in the country, and a Senate control prediction market could stay unresolved until Wednesday if the Alaska race, where Mary Peltola trades at 71 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket against Dan Sullivan, decides control of the chamber.
A prediction market on Senate control could remain unresolved until Wednesday if Alaska determines which party controls the chamber, according to Action Network.
The timing hinges on the Aleutian Islands, where Alaska’s final polling places close at 1 a.m. Eastern—the latest closing time in the country.
Alaska’s role in the Senate outcome
Mary Peltola trades at 71 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket in the Alaska race against Dan Sullivan, according to Action Network.
Those prices describe the market outlook for Alaska’s contest, not the probability of either party controlling the Senate. The potential delay in resolving the chamber-control market depends on whether that race proves decisive.
What it means for prediction markets
- Resolution could extend into Wednesday: Action Network’s reported scenario is conditional on Alaska deciding Senate control.
- The closing time is not a resolution deadline: The 1 a.m. Eastern cutoff marks the end of voting at the last polling places, rather than a stated time for settling the market.
- Both platforms show the same price: Peltola’s 71 percent reading on Kalshi and Polymarket reflects matching assessments of her race, not a settled outcome.
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