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Democrats’ Senate odds converge near 90 percent across prediction markets

Polyguana reports its live midterm board, tracking 506 races, puts Democrats at 91 percent on Polymarket and 90 percent on Kalshi to take the Senate, with the two venues agreeing within 1 point and 24.4 million dollars traded on the Senate control market. Expected seats sit at 53.7 Democratic against 45.8 Republican, up sharply from the 80 cents Kalshi showed at 7:17 p.m. ET as the 8 p.m. poll closings arrived.

Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate reached 91 percent on Polymarket and 90 percent on Kalshi, according to Polyguana’s live midterm board, published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET.

The board tracks 506 races. Its Senate control readings placed the two prediction-market venues within 1 point of each other, with 24.4 million dollars traded on the Senate control market, according to Polyguana.

Senate pricing moves higher around poll closings

Kalshi had shown 80 cents for Democratic Senate control at 7:17 p.m. ET. The subsequent 90 percent reading marked a sharp increase as the 8 p.m. poll closings arrived.

Polyguana’s expected-seat figures stood at 53.7 Democratic seats and 45.8 Republican seats. Those estimates describe the projected chamber composition, rather than the probability of either party winning control.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Close agreement across venues: Polymarket’s 91 percent and Kalshi’s 90 percent readings showed broadly aligned expectations for Democratic Senate control at the reported snapshot.
  • A substantial repricing: Kalshi’s move from 80 cents at 7:17 p.m. ET to the later 90 percent reading highlights the change in expectations around the 8 p.m. poll closings. The supplied reporting does not identify which races drove it.
  • Different measures matter: Expected seats of 53.7 Democratic and 45.8 Republican provide a separate view from control probabilities. Neither measure is a confirmed election result.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Polyguana
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