San Francisco tops Super Bowl pricing as platform quotes diverge
DeFi Rate's NFL board, observed about 3:35 AM ET on November 2, prices San Francisco at 15 percent to win the Super Bowl, at 15.5 cents on Kalshi and 14.1 cents on Polymarket. Seattle follows at 9 percent and Chicago at 8 percent on the same board.
San Francisco 49ers lead DeFi Rate’s NFL board with a 15 percent probability of winning the Super Bowl, according to DeFi Rate. Seattle Seahawks follow at 9 percent, with Chicago at 8 percent.
A lead across the listed contenders
The board was observed about 3:35 AM ET on November 2. The report was published on Nov 2, 2026, at 3:45 AM ET, making these figures a snapshot rather than a statement of current prices.
San Francisco’s listed probability puts it ahead of both Seattle and Chicago. Even so, a 15 percent reading leaves the leading team well short of an even chance of winning the championship.
Platform prices differ
According to DeFi Rate, San Francisco was priced at 15.5 cents on Kalshi and 14.1 cents on Polymarket. Those venue-specific quotes differ from each other and from the board’s 15 percent headline probability.
The supplied summary does not explain how DeFi Rate calculates its board probability. It also provides no earlier observations, so the snapshot alone cannot establish whether support for any of the three teams was rising or falling.
What it means for prediction markets
- Leadership is not certainty: San Francisco leads the listed teams at 15 percent, but that does not imply a likely championship win.
- Venue matters: Kalshi’s 15.5-cent quote and Polymarket’s 14.1-cent quote show different pricing for San Francisco at the observation time.
- Timing limits interpretation: The November 2 snapshot establishes the reported ranking, not a price trend or subsequent market movement.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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