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Kalshi’s busiest year-end S and P bracket trails neighboring range in price

The 8,000 to 8,199 range carried the highest open interest of the S and P 500 December 31 brackets in the October 31 snapshot. The 7,800 to 7,999 range was priced higher, at 22 cents.

The S and P 500 finishing between 8,000 and 8,199 on December 31 was priced at 11 cents on Kalshi in an October 31 snapshot, according to PredictionMarketPicks. That bracket had 305,000 contracts in open interest.

Open interest and pricing diverge

The 8,000 to 8,199 range had the highest open interest among the S and P 500 December 31 brackets in the snapshot. It therefore led on outstanding contracts, though not necessarily on market-implied likelihood.

The neighboring 7,800 to 7,999 bracket was priced at 22 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks—twice the price of the 8,000 to 8,199 range. The supplied summary does not give open interest for that lower bracket.

A dated snapshot, not a trend

The report was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 11:45 PM ET. Its October 31 figures establish a comparison between the two brackets, but the supplied material contains no earlier prices or open-interest readings to show how positioning had changed.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Open interest is not a probability ranking: The 8,000 to 8,199 bracket led in outstanding contracts, while the lower neighboring range carried a higher price.
  • The price gap is distinct: The 7,800 to 7,999 bracket traded at 22 cents versus 11 cents for 8,000 to 8,199.
  • The evidence is limited: Without prices for every bracket or historical readings, the snapshot does not establish the overall favorite or a shift in expectations.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionMarketPicks”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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