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Kalshi’s year-end S and P 500 bracket slips five cents

The bracket is the biggest 24-hour mover among Kalshi economics contracts in the PredictionMarketPicks snapshot at 3:21 AM EST on November 1, with 1,056 contracts traded in 24 hours and 290,000 contracts in open interest.

A Kalshi contract covering the S and P 500 finishing between 7,800 and 7,999 on December 31 was priced at 21 cents, a decline of five cents over 24 hours, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

Price move and trading activity

The bracket registered the largest 24-hour move among Kalshi economics contracts in the PredictionMarketPicks snapshot taken at 3:21 AM EST on November 1.

Trading volume totaled 1,056 contracts over the preceding 24 hours, while open interest stood at 290,000 contracts. Those figures describe different measures: recent trading activity and outstanding positions.

Scope of the snapshot

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 3:30 AM ET. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the price decline or provide prices for neighboring S and P 500 brackets.

That limits the conclusions readers can draw about the broader year-end outlook. A lower price for this particular range does not, by itself, show whether traders shifted toward higher or lower index outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The five-cent decline marks a repricing of the 7,800–7,999 outcome, not necessarily a directional call on the S and P 500.
  • The largest-mover designation applies to Kalshi economics contracts in this snapshot, rather than to prediction markets broadly.
  • The 1,056-contract daily volume and 290,000-contract open interest provide activity context, but do not establish what drove the move.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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