Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Polymarket puts Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds at 14.5 percent before year-end

World Monitor's live board on November 1, read at 12:21 PM UTC, listed the ceasefire market among its most traded tracked markets on Polymarket. The market closes at the start of 2027.

A Polymarket contract on whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 was priced at 14.5 percent, with 10.2 million dollars traded, according to World Monitor.

The figures offer a snapshot of market expectations for an agreement before the end of 2026, rather than evidence of progress toward a ceasefire.

A heavily traded contract with a year-end deadline

World Monitor’s live board, read on November 1 at 12:21 PM UTC, placed the contract among the most traded Polymarket markets it tracks. That ranking applies to World Monitor’s tracked markets, not necessarily the entire platform.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026 at 7:45 AM ET. The market closes at the start of 2027, following its December 31, 2026 deadline for a ceasefire agreement.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Low implied probability: The 14.5 percent price indicates that the market viewed an agreement by the deadline as unlikely at the time of the snapshot.
  • Notable trading activity: The 10.2 million dollars traded establishes activity in the contract, but the supplied material provides no price history from which to infer a trend.
  • Resolution details remain unspecified: The summary identifies the deadline and closing period but does not provide the criteria for what qualifies as a ceasefire agreement.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to World Monitor”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related