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Rafael López Aliaga mayoral victory odds slide to 70.7 percent on Polymarket

Polymarket traders lowered the chance that Rafael López Aliaga wins the next Lima mayoral elections to 70.7 percent, down 15.3 points in 24 hours. The market has 209,000 dollars in lifetime volume, with 17,000 dollars traded in the last day, and is awaiting settlement after its scheduled October 5, 2026 resolution date.

Rafael López Aliaga’s probability of winning the next Lima mayoral elections fell to 70.7 percent on Polymarket, according to PredictionBubbles. The decline amounted to 15.3 points in 24 hours.

Trading and settlement

PredictionBubbles’ report, published Oct 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, put lifetime trading volume at 209,000 dollars. Of that total, 17,000 dollars changed hands in the last day.

The market is still awaiting settlement despite a scheduled resolution date of October 5, 2026. The reported probability therefore reflects pricing in an unsettled contract, rather than a completed market determination.

The supplied summary does not explain the price decline or why settlement remains pending. It also provides no election result or settlement criteria against which to assess the latest price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 15.3-point decline marks a substantial downward repricing, although the reported probability remains above 50 percent at 70.7 percent.
  • Lifetime volume of 209,000 dollars and last-day volume of 17,000 dollars show trading activity, but do not establish what drove the move.
  • Pending settlement is a key distinction: the market price is not confirmation of an election outcome, and the available information does not explain the delay beyond October 5, 2026.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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