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Kalshi dominates prediction trading as face value outpaces cash paid

DeFi Rate counted 129.1 billion dollars in contracts at face value across nine venues in the 30 days to November 3, with 30.5 billion dollars actually paid and 5.3 billion dollars traded in the last 24 hours. Kalshi took 97.5 billion dollars of the 30-day total, ahead of Polymarket US at 14.9 billion dollars.

Prediction-market contracts totaled 129.1 billion dollars at face value across nine venues in the 30 days to November 3, according to DeFi Rate. The figures were published on Nov 4, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET.

Kalshi accounted for 97.5 billion dollars of that total, or about 76 percent. Polymarket US followed with 14.9 billion dollars, placing it a distant second over the same period.

Two measures of market activity

The face-value total was substantially larger than the amount participants actually paid. DeFi Rate put that cash figure at 30.5 billion dollars, distinguishing contract value from money spent.

DeFi Rate also recorded 5.3 billion dollars traded in the last 24 hours. That shorter window provides a separate snapshot of activity alongside the 30-day figures.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Measurement matters: The 129.1 billion dollars in face-value contracts and 30.5 billion dollars actually paid describe different aspects of trading. They should not be treated as interchangeable measures.
  • Activity is concentrated: Kalshi’s roughly 76 percent share shows that most reported face-value trading occurred on one venue, rather than being evenly distributed across the nine platforms.
  • Volume is not a probability signal: These aggregate figures describe trading activity, not changes in the odds of any particular outcome.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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