Polymarket's S&P 500 year-end projection of 8,000 outpaces options market expectations

Different odds for the same index levels

Polymarket contracts and options pricing point to different probabilities for year-end S&P 500 outcomes, according to an Action Network comparison reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 9:45 AM ET.

Polymarket puts the probability of the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 by year-end at 49 percent. The options-implied probability is lower, at 34 to 39 percent, according to Action Network.

The gap runs both ways

For a fall to 7,200, the relationship reverses. Polymarket prices that outcome at 35 percent, compared with an options-implied range of 47 to 49 percent.

The comparison therefore shows Polymarket assigning a higher probability to the 8,000 outcome and a lower probability to the 7,200 outcome than options pricing does. The supplied summary does not include the contracts’ settlement terms or the methodology used to derive probabilities from options, limiting how closely the figures can be compared.

What it means for prediction markets

• The upside outcome is priced more highly on Polymarket: Its 49 percent probability for reaching 8,000 exceeds the options-implied range of 34 to 39 percent.
• The downside outcome is priced less highly: Polymarket’s 35 percent probability for a fall to 7,200 is below the options-implied 47 to 49 percent.
• Comparability remains an open question: Without settlement details and the options methodology, the reported differences alone do not establish that either market is mispriced.