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Bitcoin prediction contracts show sharp probability gap between two price thresholds

PredictionMarketPicks reports its November 4, 7:13 a.m. ET snapshot of Polymarket daily Bitcoin contracts puts the above 78,000 dollars contract at 57 percent on 102,000 dollars traded in 24 hours, against 3 percent for above 80,000 dollars on 88,000 dollars. The Bitcoin Up or Down contract for November 4 stands at 71 percent.

According to PredictionMarketPicks, Polymarket’s daily Bitcoin contracts showed a wide probability gap between two price thresholds in its November 4, 2026, snapshot taken at 7:13 a.m. ET.

Higher threshold draws much lower odds

The contract for Bitcoin above 78,000 dollars on November 4 stood at 57 percent, with 102,000 dollars traded over 24 hours.

The above 80,000 dollars contract was priced at just 3 percent, despite recording 88,000 dollars in trading over the same period, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Trading activity at the higher threshold therefore accompanied a much lower implied probability.

Directional contract favors an increase

Separately, the Bitcoin Up or Down contract for November 4 stood at 71 percent. That directional reading sits alongside the threshold contracts but does not establish that Bitcoin will exceed either specified price.

The figures reflect the 7:13 a.m. ET snapshot, rather than a final outcome. PredictionMarketPicks published its report on November 4, 2026, at 8:00 AM ET.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 57 percent and 3 percent readings show sharply different expectations for Bitcoin clearing 78,000 dollars versus 80,000 dollars.
  • The 102,000 dollars and 88,000 dollars in 24-hour turnover indicate activity in both contracts; volume alone does not signal a likely outcome.
  • The 71 percent directional reading should be distinguished from the price-threshold probabilities: an increase and a move above a particular level are different propositions.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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