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Bitcoin downside threshold draws higher odds in Polymarket’s October trading

RG.org reports Polymarket's October Bitcoin price market has traded 11.3 million dollars, with a dip to 77,500 dollars before the month ends priced at 50 percent and a run to 82,500 dollars at 46 percent. Wider lines put a dip to 75,000 dollars at 21 percent and a run to 85,000 dollars at 16 percent.

According to RG.org, Polymarket’s October Bitcoin price market has recorded 11.3 million dollars in trading, with the reported odds slightly favoring a dip to 77,500 dollars over a run to 82,500 dollars.

Nearby thresholds show a narrow gap

A dip to 77,500 dollars before the month ends is priced at 50 percent, according to RG.org. A run to 82,500 dollars is priced at 46 percent, a four-percentage-point difference between the two thresholds.

The figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 6:30 PM ET, placing the snapshot on the final day of the market’s October window.

More distant levels carry lower odds

The wider price thresholds have substantially lower reported probabilities. RG.org puts a dip to 75,000 dollars at 21 percent and a run to 85,000 dollars at 16 percent.

The downside threshold therefore carries the higher price in both pairs. These are separate price-touch outcomes, however, rather than a single binary choice between Bitcoin rising and falling.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 50 percent price for 77,500 dollars leaves that outcome evenly balanced in the reported snapshot; it does not establish that the threshold will be reached.
  • The 46 percent price for 82,500 dollars shows a narrow gap relative to the nearer downside threshold, while the wider levels stand at 21 percent and 16 percent.
  • The 11.3 million dollars in reported trading measures activity, not the certainty of any outcome.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    RG.orgrg.org
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    https://rg.org
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