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Polymarket’s volume share shrinks as US exchange revises trader incentives

Gaming America, citing DeFi Rate data, said Polymarket's two exchanges took 17.2 percent of combined face-value volume in the 30 days before October 29, down from 93.8 percent in October 2024. Polymarket US filed nine CFTC filings between October 2 and October 26 amending seven deposit, rebate and referral programs to win traders back.

Polymarket’s two exchanges accounted for 17.2 percent of combined Kalshi and Polymarket face-value volume in the 30 days before October 29, according to Gaming America, citing DeFi Rate data.

That compares with 93.8 percent in October 2024. The figures show a substantial shift in the distribution of trading volume between the two operators.

Incentive changes accompany the decline

Polymarket US submitted nine CFTC filings between October 2 and October 26, according to Gaming America. Those filings amended seven programs covering deposits, rebates and referrals in an effort to attract traders back.

The amendments put trader incentives at the center of Polymarket US’s response. The supplied reporting does not establish whether those changes have recovered trading volume.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The denominator matters: The 17.2 percent figure measures Polymarket’s share of combined Kalshi and Polymarket face-value volume, not its share of every prediction-market venue.
  • The comparison spans different periods: The latest figure covers the 30 days before October 29; the earlier benchmark is October 2024.
  • Incentive changes are not evidence of recovery: The nine filings document revisions to seven programs, but the supplied data do not show their effect on trader activity.
KalshiPolymarketCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Gaming America
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