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Polymarket traders favor 115 to 120 million House votes in midterms

Polymarket reports its 2026 midterms House turnout market, which resolves on the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates, leads with the 115 to 120 million outcome at 29 percent, followed by 110 to 115 million at 23 percent. The market has drawn 43,300 dollars in total trading volume since it opened on February 20, 2026.

Turnout market shows no majority favorite

The 115 to 120 million vote range leads Polymarket’s 2026 midterms House turnout market at 29 percent, according to Polymarket. The figures were reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM ET.

The next-highest outcome is 110 to 115 million votes, priced at 23 percent. That puts the leading range six percentage points ahead, with neither outcome commanding a majority probability.

Contract counts votes for House candidates

The market resolves based on the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates. Its measure is therefore House-candidate votes, rather than a broader count of participation across all midterm contests.

According to Polymarket, the market has recorded 43,300 dollars in total trading volume since opening on February 20, 2026. That figure covers the market as a whole, not just the two leading ranges.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 29 percent leader indicates a favored range, not a consensus forecast; the 23 percent runner-up remains relatively close.
  • The resolution measure matters: traders tracking this contract need totals for votes cast for U.S. House candidates.
  • The reported 43,300 dollars represents cumulative trading volume. It does not establish how much liquidity is available at current prices.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polymarketpolymarket.com
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    https://polymarket.com
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